NOAA has deployed a major upgrade to its storm surge forecasting system in preparation for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The new P-Surge 3.0 model incorporates higher-resolution terrain data, improved tidal coupling, and better representation of coastal barriers and levee systems.
Testing against historical storms showed the upgraded model reduces forecast error in peak surge height by approximately 18 percent compared to the previous version. The improvement is most notable for complex coastlines like Tampa Bay, the Chesapeake Bay, and the Louisiana delta.
The enhanced system will be operational by June 1 and will provide emergency managers with more precise evacuation guidance during landfalling hurricanes.
