NOAA's official summer outlook for June-August 2026 predicts above-normal temperatures across 85% of the contiguous United States, continuing the warming trend of recent years.
Temperature Outlook
The Southwest, Southeast, and Great Plains face the highest probability of extreme heat. Phoenix could see 30+ days above 115°F — breaking the 2023 record. The Pacific Northwest, which historically sees mild summers, is projected at 5-8°F above normal.
Precipitation
- Wetter than normal: Southeast coast (increased hurricane activity)
- Drier than normal: Pacific Northwest, northern Great Plains
- Near normal: Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
Impact Forecast
Drought is expected to expand across the western U.S. Wildfire risk is elevated in California, Oregon, and Montana. Energy demand will strain grids — ERCOT (Texas) has already issued reliability alerts for July.
Health Concerns
Heat-related deaths have increased 60% since 2010. Outdoor workers, elderly, and those without air conditioning are most at risk. Check on vulnerable neighbors during extreme heat events.
