Colorado State University's annual hurricane season forecast predicts 20 named storms for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, well above the 30-year average of 14. The forecast calls for 10 hurricanes, of which 5 are expected to reach major hurricane intensity (Category 3+).
The primary drivers for the active forecast are warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, a developing La Niña pattern that reduces wind shear over the Atlantic, and a favorable African monsoon pattern that seeds tropical disturbances.
Atlantic sea surface temperatures are running 1.5°F above the 1991-2020 average, providing enhanced fuel for tropical development. The warm water extends deep into the ocean mixed layer, meaning that storms will not readily weaken from upwelling as they track across the basin.
The forecast comes amid growing concern about the increasing intensity of Atlantic hurricanes. Research published in Nature Climate Change shows that the proportion of storms reaching Category 4-5 intensity has increased 25% since 1980.
Emergency management officials are using the forecast to prepare communities along the Gulf and East coasts. Early preparation includes reviewing evacuation routes, stocking emergency supplies, and ensuring that flood insurance policies are in place before the June 1 season start.
